Analysis And Forecast Of The Security Market Prospects In The Fourth Quarter Of 2021

In the first half of the year, China’s economy continued to recover steadily, and quality and efficiency improved steadily, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual goal. However, the current global epidemic is still evolving, and the external environment is becoming more complex and severe. In the second half of the year, there are still many unstable and uncertain factors in China’s economic development. On July 30, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to make comprehensive arrangements for the work in the second half of the year. The meeting emphasized that in the next stage, we will continue to adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, maintain the continuity, stability, and sustainability of macroeconomic policies, do a good job in cross-cyclical adjustments of macroeconomic policies, improve the effectiveness of proactive fiscal policies, and maintain steady monetary policies to maintain liquidity. With reasonable and abundant nature, tap the potential of the domestic market, strengthen technological innovation and industrial chain and supply chain resilience, promote key construction such as major projects and basic livelihood projects, and implement comprehensive measures to ease the pressure of rising prices of bulk commodities, etc., under the promotion of various national measures , China’s economic development resilience in the second half of the year will promote steady economic growth.

For the security industry, the fourth quarter is generally the season for completed projects, rapid revenue growth, and improved operating performance. Most surveyed companies remain optimistic about the development in the fourth quarter. According to forecasts by surveyed companies, about 74% of companies’ sales will increase in the next quarter, about 19% of companies will be the same as in the third quarter, and about 7% of companies are expected to decline. According to company forecasts, the security industry will grow by 10% in the second half of the year. The video surveillance market is expected to grow by 10%, the anti-theft alarm market is expected to grow by 7%, the entrance and exit control market is expected to grow by 9%, and the physical protection market is expected to grow by 6%. Analyzed by application fields, the market growth rate of traditional industries and fields (such as cultural and museums, finance, transportation, government agencies, public places, etc.) is about 8%, and emerging industries (such as education, sports, medical care, culture, energy, water conservancy, etc.) ) Market growth rate is about 9%, while the market growth rate of “Safe City” construction projects is 9%, the market growth rate of community and residential areas is about 10%, and the growth rate of foreign markets is about 7%.

Since the beginning of this year, the price pressure in the bulk commodity market has remained unabated. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, PPI in August rose 9.5% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate hit a new high for the year. The rise in commodity prices has led to an increase in the operating costs of the mid- and downstream manufacturing industries, further increasing the difficulty of the survival and development of enterprises. In the security industry, under the influence of strong market demand and limited production capacity, chip price increases continue to spread. We paid attention to this issue in our investigation in the second quarter, and we continued to follow up the investigation in the third quarter. According to many survey companies, the current increase in chips such as IPC, SoC, and NVR is still significant, and the supply cycle has become longer. However, many domestic security companies are striving to find alternative developments, and it is believed that the shortage of chip prices will be eased to a certain extent.

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